NDA Holds Clear Edge in Assam 2026 Race, Congress+ Strong in Minority Belts: Pre-Election Survey

GUWAHATI – A comprehensive pre-election survey report by The News Tab indicates that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is on track to secure a historic third consecutive term in the upcoming 2026 Assam Assembly elections. While the political environment remains highly competitive, the ruling alliance maintains a significant lead in both projected seats and voter preference.

The Numbers: A Decisive Edge

According to the latest polling data, the NDA is projected to win between 95 and 100 seats in the 126-member assembly, backed by a robust 58% vote share. In contrast, the primary opposition—the Congress-led alliance (CONG+)—is projected to secure only 10 to 13 seats with a 24% vote share.

The AIUDF is expected to see a sharp decline, projected at 0 to 2 seats, while independent candidates and others like Raijor Dal could hold between 10 and 12 seats.

Leadership Face-Off: Sarma vs. Gogoi

The "Chief Minister Preference" index reveals a clear generational and demographic divide between the two primary figures in Assam politics:

• Himanta Biswa Sarma (NDA): Holds a 56.6% preference rating. His support is strongest among women (54%) and rural voters, who perceive him as a "strong administrator" and the architect of modern infrastructure.

• Gaurav Gogoi (CONG+): Receives a 38.7% preference rating. His strongest support comes from Muslim voters, where he holds a 68% preference.

Strategic Alliance Shifts

The report highlights a significant expansion of the NDA, which now operates as a four-party arrangement following the return of the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) after a five-year hiatus. This move is expected to consolidate the NDA's position in the Bodoland belt and reduce vote-splitting in multi-cornered contests.

Conversely, the opposition faces challenges with fragmentation. While Congress has attempted to project organizational seriousness by releasing an initial list of 42 candidates, its alliance talks with Raijor Dal have been put on hold, potentially weakening the anti-BJP front.

Key Issues Driving the Electorate

The survey identifies several central issues shaping voter sentiment:

• Welfare and Infrastructure: The "Orunodoi" scheme and the UNESCO World Heritage designation of Charaideo Moidams have solidified rural support for the NDA.

• Economy: With 69% of the workforce employed in agriculture and the tea sector remaining a social flagship, campaign messaging centered on agrarian rights and tea-garden issues remains critical.

• Identity and Governance: Regional identity, flood and erosion concerns, and job creation continue to be primary drivers for the 3.12 crore population.

As the electoral machinery enters revision mode for the 2026 cycle, the NDA enters the final stages of the campaign with a clear structural advantage across the state.